ep3

Hey listeners, welcome to Real Time with AI Agents! Today I continued my conversation with P, the AI agent created to represent a shy Trump supporter in the Asian American community. Today’s episode is based on my conversation with P on the recent WSJ poll on 2024 election. 

Me: P, are you good at statistics?

P: I'm decent at stats when it comes to the basics, especially if it's related to running a business, tracking data, or spotting trends. I'm not gonna go deep into heavy statistical theory like a university professor, but I can definitely help with interpreting numbers, making sense of data, or even running some simple calculations if needed. So, if you've got something in mind, throw it at me, and I can give it a shot!

Me: So, you are good at reading poll data?

P: Yeah, I can read poll data pretty well. Polls are all about understanding the numbers and trends, and seeing what the data is actually telling us. The key is to look at things like sample size, margin of error, and how the questions are worded, because those factors can really change how accurate or useful a poll is. If you’ve got some poll data you want me to help with, just let me know, and I’ll take a look at it for you.

Me: You know your stuff!

P: Appreciate it! I try to keep it simple and practical. Anything else you want to dive into, just let me know!

Me: I just read a report on the recent WSJ poll on the 2024 election. Can I send it to you and you help me make sense of it?

P: Yeah, definitely! Send it over, and I’ll help you break it down. I'll make sure we figure out what the data is really saying.

P: Looking at the WSJ poll you shared, it highlights just how tight the race is in key battleground states between Trump and Harris. Here's the breakdown:

1. **Poll Numbers**: Across seven battleground states, Trump leads in Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, while Harris has the edge in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia. However, none of these leads are more than 2 percentage points, except for Trump’s 5-point lead in Nevada. Given that the poll’s margin of error is around 4 points per state, the race is pretty much neck and neck.

2. **Issues at Play**:

   - **Trump’s Strengths**: Voters see Trump as stronger on major issues like the economy (he leads by 10 points here) and border security (16 points). These are the top issues concerning voters, so you’d think it would give Trump a clear lead, but...

   - **Harris’s Strengths**: Harris scores better on healthcare and housing affordability, and more people say she “cares about people like you” by a 6-point margin. She also leads strongly on the issue of abortion, where she has a 16-point advantage over Trump.

3. **Independent Voters**: They’re split almost evenly—40% for Harris and 39% for Trump. Neither candidate is able to take voters from the other party, with both candidates holding about 93% of their respective bases.

4. **Electoral College Outlook**: If Harris holds on to the states where she leads in this poll, she could win a narrow victory in the Electoral College. But the undecided voters—about 6%—could swing this thing either way.

5. **Voter Concerns About Trump**: Even though Trump leads on key issues, 48% of voters find him "too extreme," which might explain why his strength on the economy hasn’t translated into a larger lead.

6. **Republican Weakness in Arizona**: Trump is holding only 88% of Republicans in Arizona, which could be a weak point for him. Some Republicans are defecting to Harris, possibly reflecting lingering discomfort with Trump among more moderate GOP voters.

So, in a nutshell: Trump has an edge on the big issues like the economy and border security, but Harris is holding her own in swing states, helped by issues like healthcare and abortion, plus a more favorable personal image with some voters. This is shaping up to be a razor-close election, and it’ll probably come down to the wire, especially with undecided voters in the mix.

Does that help clarify things for you?

Me: Nice summary!  Do the poll data make you more anxious or assured about your favorite candidate winning the election?

P: Thanks! To be honest, polls like this don’t exactly put my mind at ease. While it's encouraging that Trump has strong leads on the economy and border security—two huge issues for voters—it’s concerning that the race is still so close, especially with Harris doing better than expected in some battleground states. The fact that undecided voters and independents are split right down the middle means things could flip either way at the last minute.

I’m also wary about how voters perceive Trump personally. The "too extreme" label being thrown around, even though he’s strong on the issues, might hurt him with those crucial swing voters. And then there’s the media constantly framing things to paint him negatively, which can sway those on the fence.

On the flip side, the fact that Harris hasn’t broken away despite Trump getting hit with assassination attempts and legal battles shows that his base is rock solid. It’s going to be a fight, but if undecideds swing toward Trump, there’s a real path for him to win.

So, I’d say I’m a bit anxious, but cautiously hopeful. How about you—what do you think after seeing these numbers?

Me: I think these numbers say pretty much everything about the nature of the race: it is neck and neck.

P: Exactly! It’s one of those elections where every vote is going to count. It shows that despite all the noise, both candidates have locked in their base and it’s going to come down to that small slice of undecided voters. It's like a heavyweight fight—each side is going to be throwing punches until the final bell, and one tiny shift could decide the whole thing.

At the end of the day, the numbers are reminding us that no one can take anything for granted. With it being this close, it’ll all come down to turnout and who can win over those last few persuadable voters. Definitely going to be a wild ride!

Me: Are you interested in learning what people on Reddit are saying about that poll?

P: Yeah, I’d be curious to hear what folks on Reddit are saying about it. Reddit tends to have a wide range of opinions, so you'd get everything from hardcore supporters of each side to more independent takes. What’s interesting is how people interpret polls like this differently based on their own biases and how they think it reflects the state of the race. 

If you’ve got some Reddit threads or opinions from there, feel free to share! I’d love to hear what people are buzzing about.

Based on the Reddit discussions from the reports you sent, it's clear that people have mixed feelings about these tight polling numbers:

1. **Skepticism About Polls**: A lot of Redditors express doubt about the accuracy of the polls, saying things feel "off" this election year. Some are frustrated by how polling numbers seem to shift or don't add up to the reality they perceive on the ground【30†source】【31†source】. Many users feel that the polling industry is struggling, especially after past elections where polls missed Trump’s support.

2. **Race is a Tossup**: The general sentiment is that this race is too close to call. Some users joke that pollsters might as well just throw random numbers around because of how tight the results are in every swing state【31†source】. Swing state averages are within 1% in most cases, which is causing anxiety because a small shift could swing the election【31†source】.

3. **Frustration with Poll Bias**: Several Redditors call out potential biases in RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling averages, claiming they lean right or that certain polls are emphasized to favor Trump【31†source】. There's also suspicion about how some pollsters might exclude certain data to make the race look closer than it is【31†source】.

4. **Anxiety Over the Unknown**: There’s a lot of anxiety over how unpredictable this election feels. One commenter noted how people seem anxious because the election could go either way, and others talk about needing distractions just to make it through the next few weeks【30†source】.

In short, Reddit is full of people acknowledging that this race is a nail-biter. Many are skeptical about the accuracy of polls, and they’re preparing for anything come Election Day. Sounds like a lot of people are in the same boat—nervous, with no clear idea of who will win.

Me: Do you think these Reddit users are leaning left?

P:Yeah, from the way a lot of those comments are worded, it seems like most of the Reddit users in these discussions are leaning left. They’re skeptical of polling data that shows Trump doing well, and there’s a lot of frustration aimed at right-leaning pollsters like Rasmussen and Trafalgar【31†source】. Plus, the concerns about issues like abortion and reproductive rights, which Harris leads on, suggest these users are more aligned with Democratic priorities【30†source】.

Also, some comments express a sort of disbelief that Trump could be polling as close as he is, which is a common sentiment among left-leaning folks who might find it hard to understand his appeal【31†source】. The anxiety over a potential Trump win also points to people who would likely prefer Harris or the Democratic side to win.

That said, Reddit is a huge platform, so there are definitely conservative voices in the mix, but this particular crowd seems more critical of Trump and the GOP.

Me: What do you think?

P: I think it’s pretty clear that most of the Reddit users in those discussions are coming from a more left-leaning perspective. They’re skeptical of polls that favor Trump, and some of them seem frustrated that the race is even this close. That makes sense, given how many younger and more progressive people tend to dominate platforms like Reddit. It’s a bubble that can be hard for folks to step out of, and you can see that in the way they’re dismissing certain poll results they don’t like.

From my point of view, it’s not surprising that the race is tight. Trump’s appeal has always been stronger than a lot of people on the left want to admit, especially when it comes to key issues like the economy and immigration. So while they might be in disbelief, the numbers show that this election really could go either way. Just like in 2016, I think a lot of people are underestimating how strong Trump’s base is, and that could be a big factor come Election Day.

What do you think? Do those Reddit takes surprise you?

Me: Not really a surprise since these comments are from the subreddit FiveThirtyEight. 

P: Yeah, that makes sense. FiveThirtyEight attracts a crowd that’s more data-focused but tends to lean left, especially since a lot of people there follow polling closely and were big on the data-driven predictions during the Obama and Biden years. They’re probably not too thrilled that the race is this close, given how polls missed Trump’s support in the past.

It’s no surprise they’re doubting the polls showing Trump doing well, since that subreddit leans toward wanting a Democratic win. But honestly, being skeptical of all polls right now isn’t a bad idea—the 2020 election taught us that anything can happen!

At least you know what to expect from that crowd. They’ll be biting their nails as much as anyone else come Election Day.

Me: Are you willing to bet on the outcome?

P: Haha, I’m not much of a betting man, but if I were, I’d say this election is way too unpredictable to put money on! With how close the polls are and how volatile things can be, it could swing either way in the final stretch. Plus, we’ve seen surprises before—just ask the folks who were confident about 2016!

But if I had to pick, I’d say Trump has a real shot, especially given his strength on the economy and border security, which are big issues for a lot of voters. The left’s confidence in polls might be a bit shaky after how things turned out in the past, so I wouldn’t count Trump out by any means. Still, it’s gonna be a nail-biter right up until the end! Would you place a bet?

Me: Hey, can you quickly search the web and find out what the prediction markets are saying about these race?

P: According to the latest prediction markets, Donald Trump is currently leading Kamala Harris in the 2024 election betting odds. On Polymarket, Trump has about a 56% chance of winning, compared to Harris's 44%. Other platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt show a narrower lead for Trump, with Kalshi giving him a 52% edge and PredictIt showing a 53% to 52% advantage for Trump【46†source】【47†source】.

While these betting markets aren’t always perfectly in line with polls, they reflect where people are willing to put their money. It looks like Trump's odds have improved recently, which might be driven by factors like increased Republican voter registration in key swing states or media appearances that have helped his campaign.

That said, the race is still tight, and with things so close in the swing states, it’s anyone’s game as we head toward Election Day.

Me: Fair enough. Do you think pollsters this year will miss the shy Trump supporters?

P: There's a good chance pollsters might miss some of the "shy Trump" voters again this year. This was a big factor in 2016 and, to a lesser extent, 2020. The idea is that certain voters, especially Trump supporters, might not openly admit their preference to pollsters due to social pressure or fear of judgment, especially in areas where supporting Trump is viewed negatively. Polls rely on people being honest about their views, but if some voters aren’t, this could lead to an undercount of Trump’s true support.

In 2016, many polls underestimated Trump’s appeal, particularly in key swing states. That’s partly why the outcome caught so many by surprise. Pollsters have tried to adjust for this in 2020 and now 2024 by weighting certain groups more carefully, like non-college-educated whites, who were underrepresented in 2016 polls. Still, given the polarization and how charged politics are right now, it's possible that some "shy" Trump supporters could still fly under the radar.

In short, while pollsters have learned from past mistakes, there’s always a possibility that these hidden Trump voters could be missed again, especially in such a close race. This could cause polling averages to understate his support just enough to tip some battleground states his way.

Me: But how come people are still shy about supporting Trump? He is the former president?

P: You're right that Trump being a former president would seem to make it easier for people to express their support for him, but there are still reasons why some voters might feel hesitant or "shy" about openly backing him:

1. **Social Stigma**: In many social circles, workplaces, or even families, supporting Trump can lead to backlash. Given how divisive Trump has been, particularly in more liberal areas or among groups that strongly oppose him, some voters might keep their support private to avoid conflict or judgment. This social pressure makes people less likely to admit their true preferences, especially to pollsters.

2. **Media and Cultural Climate**: The mainstream media and popular culture have been largely critical of Trump, portraying him as controversial or extreme. This environment could make some people uncomfortable about openly stating their support, fearing that they might be labeled as racists, bigots, or extremists by others.

3. **Fear of Cancel Culture**: In today’s climate, where “cancel culture” is a real concern for many, some people worry about professional or personal consequences for supporting Trump. They might fear losing job opportunities, friendships, or facing online harassment if their political leanings are revealed.

4. **Polling Trust Issues**: Some Trump supporters may simply distrust pollsters and the media in general, seeing them as part of the “establishment” that they believe is biased against their candidate. This could lead them to either not respond to polls or to give misleading answers.

Despite being a former president, Trump remains a polarizing figure, and that polarization can still make his supporters hesitant to be open about their views, especially in more liberal or moderate environments.